Amber Ott - Friday, November 11, 2016
We wanted to reach out to clients and friends of JoycePayne Partners following Tuesday’s presidential election. While we were surprised by Trump’s win (which we viewed as having a low probability but not impossible), we think that the election will only have a short-term impact on the markets. Since the markets dislike uncertainty, many predicted the Dow would tank following the unexpected election outcome. Indeed, the futures market on the Dow Jones Industrial Av ..
Amber Ott - Monday, August 08, 2016
The Paradox July was a good month for most investment markets and added to good investment returns for 2016. U.S. stocks were up by about 3.5% in July while other markets such as small company stocks (+6% for the month) and emerging markets (+5% for the month) had even stronger returns. At the end of July, many investment markets were at all-time highs. As markets were reaching all-time highs, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was released. GDP is the most cl ..
Amber Ott - Thursday, February 04, 2016
Despite a furious month-end rally, January was the worst month in the financial markets in a while. Certainly, markets had the worst start of a calendar year ever. The broad stock market performed even worse than the market averages. Volatility became the watchword with big swings seemingly happening on a daily basis. We have been saying for the past year that we were expecting volatility to increase. The Fed’s unprecedented quantitative easing program kept volatility u ..
Amber Ott - Monday, August 24, 2015
In the midst of the worst market sell off in four years, what should you do now? Although a common impulse would be to sell to avoid further losses (and many investors will do just that), those investors looking to maximize long-term risk-adjusted returns to meet their goals and objectives would do well to be patient. Time and time again, when things looked bleak, those who kept their heads about them and focused on achieving their long-term goals with diversified portfolios hav ..
Amber Ott - Friday, July 24, 2015
You may have heard, watching one of the popular business networks such as CNBC, Bloomberg or Fox Business, a reporter use a term “market internals.” This is a common description of a set of statistical indicators that reflect the overall health of the stock market. Think of these indicators as being analogous to an individual’s blood pressure, pulse rate and cholesterol level. Just as with an individual’s health condition, it is important to keep a tab on these ind ..
Amber Ott - Thursday, May 28, 2015
On Friday the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the first revision of the U.S. 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The first release, in April, indicated a very slow growth rate of 0.2% for the U.S. economy for the three months ended March 31st. Since that initial estimate, economic data subsequently released suggest it is possible that the 1st quarter estimate could be revised lower to a negative level. In this short commentary I woul ..
Amber Ott - Wednesday, April 29, 2015
For at least the past two years there has been widespread expectation in the financial community that long-term benchmark U.S. Treasury yields will rise. Behind this thinking: The conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy (which included three rounds of quantitative easing) combined with general improvement in the U.S. domestic economy would soften demand for Treasury bonds and require investors to demand an inflation premium to compensate for ..
Amber Ott - Thursday, March 26, 2015
As we head toward the end of the first quarter of 2015, we are also closing in on what is affectionately called “earnings season.” Four times each year - after the end of each calendar quarter - public corporations report their financial results for the previous three months, then update their outlook for upcoming periods. The media hypes these reports with “breaking news” slogans and fancy graphics, as if watching election returns or the NFL draft. Although it mig ..
Amber Ott - Wednesday, February 18, 2015
In the mainstream business media, there are daily discussions about the near-term expectations for the stock market, the outlook on Federal Reserve monetary policy and the direction of long-term interest rates, but only on rare occasions do you encounter a meaningful discussion about currency exchange rates. Now might very well be a time to do just that. In the second half of 2014, the U.S. dollar rose in value against just about every other major global currency with a few exce ..
Jen Pieson - Thursday, January 15, 2015
Market Comments for the period ending 01.12.2015 The first full trading week of 2015 is now in the books. One week does not a trend make but if the results are any indication of what is to follow, the financial market ride this year might be quite bumpy. Over the past month global financial markets have experienced a noticeable uptick in volatility. The chart below shows the CBOE (Chicago Board of Options Exchange) Implied Volatility Index for the S&P 500. ..
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